A postmortem analyzes why a project failed after the damage is done. A is an exercise in backcasting.
: This national bestseller explores how to avoid "resulting"—the error of judging a decision solely by its outcome—and instead focus on the quality of the process. thinking in bets annie duke pdf
Write down your major choices, your level of confidence (0% to 100%), and the variables you considered at the moment of the decision . When the outcome occurs months later, read your journal. This prevents "hindsight bias"—the tendency to believe you "knew it all along" after an event happens. A postmortem analyzes why a project failed after
This surfaces hidden risks.
Treating your beliefs as bets forces you to audit your own thoughts. It moves you away from emotional tribalism and toward objective reality. You become less protective of your ego because losing a bet simply means your probability model needs updating. Frameworks for Better Decisions Write down your major choices, your level of
We like to think we form beliefs objectively based on facts. In reality, we form beliefs first based on hearsay, emotion, or intuition, and then we seek out facts to validate those beliefs. We actively ignore or discredit information that contradicts our worldview. Tools for Smarter Decision-Making
If you are looking to dive deeper into this framework for your team or personal growth, I can help you tailor these concepts to your specific goals. Let me know: